I want to become a client

Provincial Politics: A Tight Race for Votes in Alberta’s Major Cities

Posted October 14th, 2014 in Alberta Politics, Calgary, CTV, Edmonton, Media Release, News by Marc Henry



Good morning all,


As valued clients and Eye on Alberta subscribers, we are pleased to provide you with this advance copy of material being released tonight through our media partners CTV (and other outlets thereafter).


These excerpts cover the provincial political “horserace” in Edmonton and Calgary, with 4 urban ridings holding by-elections in less than 2 weeks.


PLEASE NOTE: These materials are embargoed until 5:00 p.m. (Mountain) this afternoon (October 14, 2014) – please do not share them publicly until after the embargo.


The detailed edition of Eye on Alberta provides more in-depth analysis of these races and province-wide vote intentions, and a comprehensive overview of the public opinion landscape in Alberta today.  It will be available for client/subscriber secure download on Thursday morning (October 16, 2014)


Highlights of Today’s Release


6 months is a lifetime in politics.  Conventional wisdom was that eventually voters were going to get their pound of flesh out of Alison Redford’s government (whether she was there or not) whenever and wherever the opportunity presented itself.


Today, we have 4 by-elections being held less than 2 weeks from today; 3 in Calgary and 1 in Edmonton.  That’s the whenever and wherever.


But…the PCs have a new leader, the province has a new Premier (who has had an impressive first month in office), and Tory fortunes have turned sharply positive.


The political horserace in Edmonton today is too close to call: a statistical 3-way tie between the Wildrose, PCs and NDP, with the Liberals trailing these front-runners by almost double digits.


The PC vote shows the strongest momentum (up 10 percentage points since March), while the Wildrose is down slightly and the NDP holding steady.


Calgary is also dead even statistically.  The Wildrose is sitting with 38% of the decided vote, while the PCs are now standing at 36%, the Liberals 13%, NDP 8% and Alberta Party at 4% respectively.


Again, the momentum shift is in the Tories favour.  Their share of the decided vote within Calgary city limits is up 16 percentage points since March, jumping 8 points within the past two months alone.


The Wildrose enjoyed a major bump in support in Calgary immediately prior Premier Redford’s resignation followed by gradual erosion after her departure.  Since July, the Wildrose proportion of the decided vote has stabilized.


Before we get too carried away, some caveats about these results vis-à-vis upcoming by-elections. 


a) These results are drawn from a province-wide sample (BTW, the Wildrose still has a lead province-wide), and represent responses gleaned within each of the major cities (proper not CMA).  These ARE NOT by-election specific results – they are city-wide results.


b) This is mid-campaign, and results represent public opinion today, not two weeks from now.


c) By-elections are notoriously “local” in nature, and unpredictable.  There will inevitably be variations from the city-wide results on the basis of individual candidates and local events.  As well, by-elections can be particularly difficult to predict due to traditionally low voter turnout.  The ability of local campaigns to identify and get their supporters to the polls will have a major impact on the ultimate outcomes of these races.


That said, these results suggest that the by-elections on October 27 will be far more interesting and competitive than anyone would have predicted 6 months ago.





Marc Henry


ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.


To review poll results, click: CTV Release Eye on Alberta Excerpts Oct 14 2014

Click here to learn more or subscribe to the Eye on Alberta Report.