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March 22, 2023 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(Calgary) The provincial election is now only 68 days away and the two main political parties remain deadlocked for voter support according to the latest ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey of Albertans. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the NDP hold a marginal edge with 46% of the decided vote, statistically tied with the governing UCP with 45%. The Alberta Party remains well out of contention with only 6%, followed by the Liberals (2%), and various other party alternatives (1%).
Currently in Alberta, only 13% of voters are undecided about their intentions in May.
Since our last survey in January, the NDP have regained a nominal lead over the UCP.
Regionally speaking, voter intentions are very divided. In Edmonton, the NDP hold a commanding lead (68% vs. UCP at 24%), while the UCP dominate in a similar fashion outside of the two largest cities. Calgary remains the battleground which will likely determine the outcome of the next election, with 26 seats within the city up for grabs. Currently the NDP lead in Calgary, 48% vs. 42% for the UCP though the two are evenly matched in the CMA.
There are significant gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta today:
- Women and younger voters show a distinct preference for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offer a similar inclination toward the UCP
Commentary
Commenting on the results of the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs President Marc Henry notes:
“The results of this survey are a bit surprising, almost counter-intuitive. The Smith government has released a ‘chicken in every pot’ budget, are spending a lot on advertising the budget and their ‘inflation fighting’ measures, and the UCP have also been heavily advertising with partisan ads. Yet, they aren’t seeing a return on that investment in the polls; in fact, they’re down three points from January. Margin of error, but still.
Geographically, the UCP have an easier path to Government than the NDP. Currently, the conservatives enjoy a large number of ‘safe seats’ outside of the two big cities, and only need to pick up a minority of the Calgary seats to get a bare majority. The NDP on the other hand need to pick up all their currently ‘likely’ and ‘leaning’ constituencies, capture the ‘toss up’ ridings, and steal a few ‘leans UCP’ seats to win. It’s a steep path, and one that can only be done by capturing a sizable win in Calgary.”
Click here to view the full release and methodology
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Media Inquiries:
Marc Henry
President, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
Marc@ThinkHQ.com