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NDP & UCP Kick Off the Campaign in a Dead-heat

Posted May 2nd, 2023 in Alberta Election, Alberta Politics, Calgary, Edmonton, Media Release, News by Marc Henry


Media Release




(Calgary) It’s official – we’re now 28 days away from knowing who will be running Alberta for the next 4 years. And with the writ finally dropped, the two leading parties – the UCP and NDP – remain locked in a dead-heat according to the latest ThinkHQ Public Affairs provincial survey.


Province-wide the two parties are tied in decided vote with 46% each, with the Alberta Party well back at only 5%, Liberals 1% and various other party options 2%. Currently 13% of Alberta voters are undecided about how they will vote on May 29th.


This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place. The NDP hold a sizable lead in Edmonton (63% to the UCP’s 28% in Edmonton proper, 57% – 33% in Edmonton CMA), while the UCP enjoys a similar edge in areas outside of the two cities.



Meanwhile, Calgary is a real battleground. In greater-Calgary (CMA), the two parties are statistically tied (47% of the decided vote for the NDP and 46% for the UCP), but in Calgary-proper with its 26 seats, the NDP currently hold a 7-percentage point lead over the UCP (50% vs. 43%).


Although the campaign has just begun, there are many voters who have already made up their minds – almost six-in-ten (59%) decided voters report they are “Absolutely certain” about how they will be casting their ballots. That said, it also means that almost one-half of voters are either undecided or “open to persuasion” at this early stage.



There are significant gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta today:


  • Women and younger voters show a distinct preference for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offer a similar inclination toward the UCP




Commenting on the results of the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs President Marc Henry notes:


“And here we go. The pre-election interval for the past month has been a noisy one, but we’ve seen very little movement in voter preferences at this stage. 2023 has the potential to be one of the most competitive elections in Alberta’s history.


We know that the NDP are going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region. Meanwhile, the UCP are going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities. What we don’t know is who has the inside track on forming government – neither of the two leading parties can comfortably say they have the edge in 44 of the 87 ridings. The UCP have a slightly easier path to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-up and leaning ridings, many of which are in Calgary. Inside Calgary city-limits, with its 26 seats, the NDP currently hold a 7-percentage point lead which still might be a bit shy of what they need to form government. If these numbers hold, there are going to be some razor-thin victories in some of these constituencies.


This campaign is definitely going to matter. The horserace hasn’t moved much in the past few months and there are just over one-half of voters who have definitely made up their minds, but that means half are still undecided or persuadable.


This is going to be a very interesting election.”


Click here to view the full release and methodology




Media Inquiries:

Marc Henry

President, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.