.
September 22, 2021 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
.
(Calgary) With only 26 days to go before Calgary’s municipal election, the open contest for mayor is tightening, and shaping up to be a two-horse race according to a recent ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey.
.
The new poll shows Jeromy Farkas continues to hold an edge with 30% of voters saying they plan on casting their ballot for the current Ward 11 Councillor, but Ward 3 Councillor Jyoti Gondekhas narrowed the lead to only 5 percentage points, now capturing 25% of vote intentions. Meanwhile, Ward 6 Councillor Jeff Davison’s bid for the mayor’s chair seems to have stalled in single digits (6%), followed by former MP/MLA Kent Hehr (who has subsequently withdrawn from the race citing illness) and businessman Brad Field (both with 3%), and Jan Damery (and various other contenders) capturing 2% each.
.
.
.
Currently, fully 28% of Calgary voters are undecided about who they will vote for in the upcoming mayoral election, but on a decided-vote basis, Farkas’ lead expands nominally to 7-points: 43% compared to Gondek at 36%, Davison 8%, Hehr and Field 4%, and Damery 3%.
.
After months of stagnant polling on the mayor’s race, the numbers finally started to shift within the last four weeks. Since the end of July, Jyoti Gondek has posted the most gains, up 15 percentage points, while Farkas has captured an additional 7-points in the same time span. Shifts for the other candidates in the race have been nominal, though “undecideds” have dropped by 16-points.
.
- Farkas voters are more likely to be male and living outside of the inner city. Vote intentions for the candidate tend to increase with age
- Gondek is over-performing with residents of the Northeast, and those living in the inner city. She also garners higher support among younger voters, with vote intentions declining with age
- Undecided voters are more likely to be women than men, and younger, with proportions yet to decide their vote declining with age
.
.
Commentary
.
ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. President Marc Henry notes the following on these survey results:
.
“It took a while, but with 26 days to go, Calgary’s mayoral race has finally become ‘hotly contested’. For months, the race showed little movement, but there’s been plenty in the past few weeks.
.
There are 27 candidates running to replace Naheed Nenshi as mayor, but it’s looking more and more like a two-horse race between incumbent councillors, both finishing their first term in office. Since the start of the campaign, Jeromy Farkas has been the front-runner; he still is but his margin is shrinking. Jyoti Gondek has made significant gains in the past few weeks and is closing in on Farkas, and with still 28% of voters undecided, the current 5-point gap doesn’t mean much.
.
Farkas has the benefit of time, i.e., there’s not much left; after all, the advance polls open on October 4th. He also has a committed voter base which typically are more ‘dependable’ in terms of turning out.
.
Gondek has the benefit of momentum, more wind in her sails, and greater growth potential in her vote share. Kent Hehr’sdecision to withdraw from the race likely most directly benefits Councillor Gondek’s prospects.
.
It’s going to be an interesting race, and the campaign will definitely matter, not only in terms of execution, but in terms of the issues where the voters focus.”
.
Click here to view the full release and methodology
.
.
-30-
.
.
Media Inquiries:
Marc Henry
President, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
Marc@ThinkHQ.com