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Alberta’s Political Landscape: Notley’s NDP Facing Tough Road to Re-Election, and Voters Unenthusiastic/Divided about Provincial Leaders

Posted December 11th, 2018 in Alberta Election, Alberta Politics, Calgary, Edmonton, Media Release, News by Marc Henry

With a provincial election now only a few months away, the governing NDP have a very difficult path to re-election according to a recent ThinkHQ poll. They continue to hold a significant lead over the UCP in Edmonton (although the race is tightening in the Capitol-region’s suburbs), but trail badly in small urban centres and rural Alberta. In Calgary, vote intentions for the NDP are running at roughly the same levels as the 2015 election, but without the vote-split on the right, NDP prospects are not good.


  • Currently one-in-five (21%) Alberta voters are undecided about which party they will be supporting in the next provincial election


  • Among decided voters, the UCP enjoy a comfortable lead province-wide capturing 50% followed by the NDP at 35%, the Alberta Party (9%) and the Liberals (5%)


– The NDP hold an 18-point lead over the UCP within Edmonton city limits, but only an 11-point lead in the greater Edmonton region, suggesting that races in suburban ridings may be competitive


– Outside of Alberta’s two metropolitan areas, the UCP enjoys a commanding lead over the NDP


– In Calgary, the NDP are capturing about the same levels of support from voters as they did in the 2015 election, however the UCP enjoy a significant lead (now that the two right-of-centre parties have merged)


Alberta voters are less than enthusiastic about all of the current provincial party leaders – all receive varying degrees of disapproval overall


  • Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney garner similar levels of support among Alberta voters


– Fully 44% of voters approve of the job being done by Premier Notley vs. 50% who disapprove, yielding a net approval rating of -6


– 43% approve of UCP leader Jason Kenney vs. 45% disapprove for a net approval score of -2


  • The Alberta Party and Liberal Party leaders suffer from a mixture of negativity and low profile among voters


– Net approval for Stephen Mandel sits at -14, with 39% unable to rate his performance


– Net approval for David Khan is -24, with 41% unsure about him


The current roster of provincial party leaders, particularly the front-running parties, polarizes voters


– Among likely NDP voters, Rachel Notley’s approval is almost universal (97%), but among likely UCP voters only 9% approve of Notley


– Among UCP voters, Jason Kenney is very well regarded (89% approve), but only 6% of likely NDP voters offer any degree of approval for Kenney


Click the link to view detailed findings and methodology: Provincial Landscape December 2018




Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.



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