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Media Release
November 23, 2020 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
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(Calgary) With the province now firmly in the clutches of the anticipated “Winter Wave” of COVID-19, most Albertans feel the provincial government’s Nov. 12 restrictions to stem the tide of the virus’ spread fall well short, according to a new survey by ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
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Over one-half of those interviewed feel these measures don’t go far enough, with strong support offered for sterner measures designed to curtail private social gatherings, stricter enforcement of the rules, and requiring mask-wearing in all public indoor spaces.
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Reaction to November 12th Restrictions Overall
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Just over one-half (51%) of Albertans believe new COVID-19 restrictions instituted on November 12th do not go far enough overall, compared to 13% who believe they “go too far” and 29% who feel they are “about right”.
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- This sentiment is strongest in the province’s largest cities (particularly Edmonton), is slightly higher among women than men, and tends to increase with education levels
- Those with children at home and those with household incomes under $50,000 are somewhat less likely to believe these restrictions don’t go far enough
- There is a huge partisan divide on this issue. Those who voted NDP in the last provincial election overwhelmingly maintain the November 12th rules are insufficient (81%), while Conservative voters are more divided on the issue (A plurality feel they are “about right” (39%), 36% “not far enough” and 19% “too far”)
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Reaction to Specific November 12th Measures
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The controls introduced by the Province earlier this month included a handful of prohibitions, along with a number of strong recommendations for behaviour. While the actual restrictions are reasonably well received by Albertans (in some cases), many feel the province should have taken a firmer hand in mandating behaviour.
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For instance, banning group indoor fitness/team sports, along with indoor singing/dancing and performances, seem to hit the mark – Over one-half of those interviewed say these actions are “about right”, while roughly equal proportions feel they are “too far” or “not far enough”.
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Limiting private indoor gatherings to a maximum of 15 people and funeral/wedding attendees to no more than 50 persons however is too lenient for many – 47% and 55% respectively say these restrictions “don’t go far enough”.
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While the Province has strongly recommended behaviour such as distancing/masking and avoiding indoor private social gatherings, many of those interviewed feel this direction should have more teeth, moving from advice to legal direction.
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Restrictions on Bars & Restaurants
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COVID response has been particularly challenging for these businesses; initially closing them entirely, then allowing take out, followed by limited capacity and distancing (e.g. Plexiglas partitions, etc.) provisions. On November 12th, the Province mandated that bars/restaurants close by 11:00 p.m. with liquor service ceasing at 10:00 p.m.
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Albertans offer interesting, if mixed, feedback on the most recent move by the provincial government. Over four-in-ten (44%) say that closing by 11:00 p.m./liquor cut-off by 10:00 p.m. doesn’t “go far enough”, while 16% feel it goes “too far”.
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Yet, bar and restaurant owners have pushed back on the move suggesting that it may unintentionally promote the spread of COVID by driving people out of a reasonably supervised bar/restaurant environment to private residential gatherings when these establishments close. This argument resonates with most Albertans. Fully 54% agree that the new closing/cut-off provisions will likely encourage spread at smaller, private social functions (while 34% disagree).
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What Should the Province Do Now?
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The most conspicuous omission from the Province’s November 12th restrictions is transitioning from “recommending” mask wearing in public spaces to “mandating” it. While the UCP Government may be reluctant to impose such move, it is overwhelmingly popular with Albertans – indeed 81% would approve of mandatory masks, compared to only 16% who would oppose it.
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Albertans also endorse stronger enforcement of public health rules in the province, both with businesses and individuals (78% approve of each) who don’t follow public health orders. In contrast, fewer than one-in-five are opposed to enhanced enforcement.
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In light of growing infection, hospitalization and death rates in recent days, there is a segment of public health experts calling for a so-called “circuit breaker lockdown”, similar to the stay at home orders imposed across the country in the spring. This measure of last resort is surprisingly popular; over six-in-ten (61%) Albertans say they would approve of a lock-down of all non-essential businesses in the province for between 14 to 28 days (compared to 31% opposed).
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Closing schools (and moving back to online learning) is the least popular action tested, although even here, a bare majority (51%) of those interviewed say they would approve, while 40% disapprove of this move.
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- There are some modest variations in support for more stringent measures to curtail COVID spread by demographic breaks, but the most interesting variable is past voting behaviour. In this, 2019 NDP voters are overwhelmingly supportive of tighter measures to clamp down on COVID, while the sentiment of UCP voters is far more mixed.
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Commentary
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Commenting on the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs President Marc Henry notes:
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“The health experts told us it was coming, and here we are – the Winter Wave. A vaccine may be on its way in the months ahead, but today Albertans are seeing daily headlines of record infection rates, hospitalizations, shrinking intensive care capacity and spiking COVID related deaths. As Dr. Hinshaw recently noted, our current situation is quite ‘dire’.
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Ten days ago, the Provincial Government introduced new measures to blunt the spread of the virus, but they appear to be ineffective, both from a public health and political perspective. The case counts keep climbing, and in many respects, there is growing public disaffection with the lack of something more tangible from government to stop it.
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Beyond the obvious public health situation, the Kenney government has both a communications and political problem on their hands; they are trying to thread an almost impossibly small needle. Aside from reprising our spring lockdown, the most obvious action was, and remains, imposing a provincial mask mandate, banning private social gatherings and enhanced enforcement, yet the Conservatives have been reluctant to move in this direction. Though most of their supporters would likely support them in taking such actions, there is a minority (comprised predominantly of UCP voters) who would strongly bristle.
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And as each day passes, the Provincial Government’s options and prospects shrink. If spread of the virus finally forces their hand to shut down the economy again, Conservative voters certainly won’t thank them for the delay, while others will criticize them for not taking interim steps to try to ‘bend the curve’ to avoid an economic shutdown.”
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Click here to view the full release and methodology
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Media Inquiries:
Marc Henry
President, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
Marc@ThinkHQ.com