ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll
A recent poll by ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll finds there are four candidates for UCP leadership, but at this point is really only a two horse race between Brian Jean and Jason Kenney.
Methodology Caveat: UCP leader selection will take place through a vote of the membership. There is no way of reliably sampling this group of Albertans without an up-to-date party list. Our analysis is a general population sample rather than party sample, but we are able to draw some inferences based upon analysis of sub-sets of the total sample.
If all Albertans were selecting the next leader of the UCP, Brian Jean would win. On a decided basis, 51% of Alberta voters would select Jean as leader, compared to Kenney at 32%, Schweitzer at 15% and Callaway at only 2%
All Albertans will not be selecting the next UCP leader. The challenge for Jean is that his personal prospects for victory actually decline as sub-set analysis gets closer to a sample of real party voters
- While Jean would have a 19-point lead if UCP leader selection was from a purely gen-pop vote, among likely UCP voters his lead closes to only 12 points – Jean 54% vs. Kenney 42%
- When looking at responses among those who have actually been members of the Wildrose or PC parties at some point in the past, the two front-runners are deadlocked – tied at 42% each, followed by Schweitzer (13%) and Callaway (3%)
In terms of likely election outcomes, the difference between Jean and Kenney at the helm of UCP is slight – both would capture a majority today. However, Jean’s majority would provide a more comfortable margin of victory than Kenney’s.
According to mock-ballot results, a Jean-led UCP would capture 53% of the decided vote vs. 34% for Notley’s NDP, 8% Alberta Party and 5% Liberal
- Jean’s results closely mirror the generic ballot – 53% for UCP – although NDP voting on the mock-ballot increases by 3 percentage points
- With Jean at the helm, UCP would have a resounding lead everywhere outside of the two big cities, a comfortable lead in Calgary and trail the NDP by 12-points in Edmonton
Jason Kenney as leader would yield 49% of the decided vote for the UCP, 35% NDP, 10% Alberta Party and 6% Liberal
- Kenney’s mock-ballot results underperform the generic ballot (by 4-points for UCP vote), while the NDP vote climbs 4 percentage points
- UCP’s lead outside of the two major cities is slightly less with Kenney as leader compared to Jean, but still sizable. In Calgary, UCP with Kenney at the helm has a 16-point lead over the NDP. In Edmonton however, the NDP’s 12-point lead vs. Jean climbs to 19-points under Kenney
Schweitzer and Callaway are not strong options for the UCP at this stage. Either would see “undecideds” spike, and the UCP’s lead over the NDP essentially evaporate. Schweitzer would tie the NDP at 40%, while Callaway actually trails nominally (NDP 41%, UCP 40%)
Click the link to view detailed findings and methodology: Metro Poll September 2017 – UCP Leadership