EMBARGO LIFTED: POST TO WEB RELEASE
Good morning all,
As valued clients and Eye on Alberta subscribers, we’re pleased to provide you with this “sneak peak” at material being released on CTV and other news outlets today. These are excerpts from our March Edition of the Eye on Alberta report.
Please note: These materials are embargoed until 1:00 p.m. (Mountain) this afternoon (March 19, 2014) – please do not share them publicly until then.
Our March Eye on Alberta Poll came out of field on Sunday. While fielding, Premier Redford announced that she would be repaying $45,000 in travel expenses. To gauge the impact of this, we decided to boost the sample size and extend the field window on our survey to gather statistically reliable sample both pre & post announcement. Details are included in the methodology section. (And short story: Payback had no impact on improving Premier/Party fortunes)
Key highlights from the Poll:
- Premier’s approval numbers continue to tumble: She now sits at 18% approval province-wide compared to 75% who disapprove. Context: Without Precedent. You need to go back to the darkest days of Don Getty to see a sitting Premier sub-20% in approval, and that was when the economy was tanking, successive budget deficits, oil & gas prices at rock bottom, etc. To see a sitting Premier with these numbers amidst a provincial economy functioning as well as Alberta’s is today, is truly uncharted territory.
- PC vote numbers are now starting to be deeply impacted by Redford’s leadership: PCs now sitting at 19% of the decided vote, compared to the WR at 46%, Liberals at 16% and NDP at 15%. In Edmonton today, the PC’s are sitting in 4th place. At present, less than half of the voters who cast a ballot for the PCs in 2012 would do so again tomorrow.
- The main beneficiary of the PCs recent decline – Wildrose: For the first time since the election, we see a significant spike in Wildrose vote intentions from one wave of polling to the next. They are up 8 percentage points since our January poll. Typically the Wildrose Party has been tracking within 4-5 percentage points of their 2012 election result. This spike puts them 12 percentage points ahead of what they received two years ago at the ballot box.
- Travel troubles are a big deal: 90% of Albertans are aware of the controversy surrounding the Premier’s travel expenses, and 70% are less likely to vote for the PCs as a result (Including 59% of those who voted PC in the last election)
- Premier’s challenge: Most Albertans see this as a “character issue”. Over 1/2 (55%) agree with the view that Redford’s travel controversy demonstrates bad character vs. those thinking it shows bad judgment (33%). Only 8% said the Premier didn’t really do anything wrong. The public tends to be forgiving of honest mistakes, but is far less forgiving of what they perceive to be flaws in character.
Bottom line: In present circumstances, it is difficult to imagine a probable scenario where the Premier survives to the next election; not a question of if, rather of when.
Cheers,
Marc Henry
President
ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
Click the link to view the poll results: CTV Release March19 2014
