The lead up to the provincial campaign has the NDP government trying to draw a stark contrast in leadership between themselves and the UCP. The underlying premise of this strategy says that Notley is a popular Premier; Kenney is an unpopular Opposition Leader, and; it is better to have voters concentrating on “who will be the best premier” than on less appealing areas of the NDP’s record as government.
Is this a sound strategy? Will it be effective?
We won’t have to wait long to find out, but at first blush there are weaknesses. First and foremost, the underlying premise isn’t correct.
- Notley and Kenny are fairly evenly matched when it comes to approval. The Premier currently sits at 44% approval, compared to Kenney at 43% but she also suffers from higher disapproval than the UCP leader (51% vs. 45%)
- Notley appeals more to more urban votersoKenney appeals more to more rural/suburban voters. Kenney also has a “gender gap” issue
- Notley is more popular among undecideds than Kenney, but there are limits on growth from this group; One-half of undecided voters disapprove of the Premier
Notley likely is the most potent weapon in the NDP arsenal, but this is as much a reflection of the party’s limitations as it is of her leadership. Her approval numbers track ahead of the NDP’s vote-share (unlike Kenney’s), and her approval among likely NDP voters is almost universal.
Click the link to view detailed findings and methodology: Alberta Leader Evalutions February 2019
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
.
Want to have your say on important issues in Alberta? Join the ThinkHQ-Connect Research Panel (www.thinkhqconnect.com). We want to hear from you!
