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Media Release: Countdown to The Calgary Municipal Election 2021
October 19, 2020 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
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(Calgary) With a municipal election now less than a year away, there is a prevailing sense of unease among voters about the direction The City of Calgary is headed today. According to a recent ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey of over 1,200 Calgary residents, fully 43% believe the city is on the “Wrong Track” right now, compared to 36% who feel it is on the “Right Track”, and another 21% who are unsure.
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Calgary’s battered economy is undoubtedly influencing public sentiment on the city’s direction, with a resounding eight-in-ten (80%) of those interviewed characterizing the local economic conditions as weak compared to only 16% suggesting any degree of strength today.
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Right Track – Wrong Track
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Municipal politicians and aspiring politicians may find some hostility on the doors over the course of the next year of campaigning, with a plurality of voters saying they feel the city is on the wrong track. This pessimism is also considerably more intense than optimism, with one-fifth (21%) of voters saying the city is “Definitely on the Wrong Track” compared to only 5% who maintain it is “Definitely on the Right Track”.
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- Right Track Voters: More commonly women, those under the age of 35, inner city and northeast residents, newcomers to Calgary, renters, those living in multi-family housing, and provincial NDP supporters
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- Wrong Track Voters: Highest proportions among men, those over 55 years of age (increasing with age), more affluent, homeowners (particularly those in single family homes), those with the longest tenure of residency in the city, and provincial UCP supporters
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Local Economic Strength
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Economically, Calgary is not in a good place right now, and Calgarians know it. Voters overwhelmingly believe the economy is weak today (80% overall, with 36% saying “Very weak”).
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- Perceptions of economic weakness tend to increase with age, income, tenure of residence in the city, and movement of left-to-right on the provincial political spectrum
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- Additionally, homeowners (particularly SFHs), residents of established communities, and those who do not use public transit are more likely to rate the city’s economy as weak right now
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- Residents of the northwest and southeast are most “bearish” on the local economy, while residents of the northeast are somewhat less negative
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Commentary
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Commenting on the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs President Marc Henry notes:
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“We’re 364 days from the election and there are still a lot of unknowns, but it has the potential to one of the more interesting municipal campaigns in recent memory. Even at this very early stage, we know there will be significant turnover on Council, with a number of current councillors indicating they won’t be seeking re-election. We’re not sure of Mayor Nenshi’s intentions just yet, but if he runs for re-election, he’s already got at least one serious contender in Councillor Jeromy Farkas.
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What we do know is that voters are not in a particularly hospitable mood at the moment, which generally signals a tougher time for incumbents. There is considerable dissatisfaction about where the city is going today. We’re also at or near the bottom of an economic rollercoaster in Alberta, and economic anxiety in Calgary is palpable at the moment with few encouraging signals on the horizon.
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If this mood persists, look for issues like spending and finance, economic development and business climate and taxes, fees and levies to be very much top-of-mind concerns for voters in 2021, while traditional municipal issues such as infrastructure, transit, and growth management will take more of a backseat.”
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Click here to view the full release and methodology
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Media Inquiries:
Marc Henry
President, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc.
Marc@ThinkHQ.com
